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There was a new term that joined our lexicon last year: “vibecession.”
A vibecession is a recently introduced term used to describe a disconnect between the economy of a country and the general public's perception of it, which is primarily pessimistic. The idea of vibecession is ultimately about how the economy makes people feel, but not what the facts are and how the economy is really doing (perception vs reality).
Views on the current state of the economy, particularly south of the border, are increasingly being perceived in the eye of the beholders, who are allowing their political views to cloud the objectively quantified financial ones. Despite signs of a strong U.S. economy and markets at all-time highs, many investors appear to be increasingly worried about their financial outlook. In the recent MoneyTalk, Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist at TD Wealth, expands on this and discusses the divergence between market performance and investor sentiment.
Economic facts do matter
Data consistently outlines economic growth and the labour market's resilience. Nevertheless, investors' negative perception of the economy (and the market outlook) are putting them on the investment sidelines and parking their investments in cash and cash equivalents. One of the reasons for this sentiment is that investors are no longer receiving their updates from economic data sources, but heavily rely on social media, specifically alternative news outlets that focus on dramatic and negative news.
The U.S. economy and looming election are clear examples of this. The fact is, the economy in the U.S. is good - and compared to most of the rest of the world, it's pretty great. Toxic politics in the world's superpower is being perpetuated by social media, compounded by algorithms, and it's having a negative impact on wealth investors globally. Our emotions are being challenged in a way that they have never been before. However, the reality is that investors focusing on their goals rather than their feelings about the economy benefitted from following their investment strategy.
Leaning on a trusted professional
Making investment decisions based on how you feel about the economy at the expense of the facts about the economy can have a considerable long-term impact on your financial goals. More often than not, the noise on your phone only matters over the short-term. Over the long-term, what's important is not always having the correct facts but having the correct process. That process requires professional investment management, ideally from an institution that can provide the best information in real time, along with an investment philosophy that can stand the test of time. Ultimately, investment decisions need to be based on the foundation of empiricism, not on political fears reinforced by algorithms.
本文所含信息由道明资产管理有限公司提供，仅供参考。信息出自我们认为可靠的来源。本信息并未提供财务、法律、税务或投资建议。具体的投资、税款或交易策略应根据每位投资者的目标和风险承受能力加以评估。
本文档中的部分陈述可能包含预测性的前瞻性陈述（“FLS”），其中包含“预计”、“预期”、“打算”、“认为”、“估计”和类似的前瞻性表述或其否定形式。前瞻性陈述基于当前对未来普遍的经济、政治、相关市场因素（例如利率和汇率、股票和资本市场）以及普遍经营环境的预计和预测，并假定不发生税法或其他法律或政府管制方面的任何变动或灾难事件。对于未来事件的预计和预测本身受无法预见的风险和不确定性的影响。此等预计和预测可能在未来并不准确。前瞻性陈述并非对未来表现的保证。实际发生的事件可能与前瞻性陈述明示或暗示的事件存在实质差异。包括上文所述各项因素在内的多个重要因素均可能造成这种背离。您不应在任何程度上依赖于前瞻性陈述。
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