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在投资上市股票时，评估一支股票的一个关键因素是利润率（通常简称为“边际”）的水平以及未来走势。在个别公司层面上，利润率的走势对盈利增长前景有重大影响，走势的改善或恶化可能会引发估值的重大变化。
Investors also look at margins at a broader equity market level, by aggregating the outlook across a range of companies, to assist in making asset allocation decisions.
Margins - the past, present, and future
Looking back at where margins have been and where they are today is critical in helping to understanding where they headed. To help provide some insight into where margins may be headed, TD Asset Management Inc. (TDAM) recently published an article titled Getting to the bottom of – the bottom line that helps readers get a better understanding of the importance of margins and what factors can positively and negatively affect them moving forward.
Over the last three decades we have witnessed margins expand for the S&P 500 Index, driven by both operating gains (businesses have become more efficient in generating sales into profits), as well as non-operating gains (driven by lower taxes and interest costs). While margins have increased over the long run, they are typically pro-cyclical and move up and down with the economic cycle. This is driven by operating and financial leverage, to rising and declining sales. There have been five key drivers of higher margins over the last 30 years:
- A growing mix of S&P 500 profits being generated by the Technology sector
- Growth in corporate concentration across several industries,
- Globalization which has led to lower bargaining power of labour,
- Lower effective tax rates,
- Declining interest rates.
Will corporate margins continue to post gains in the years ahead?
There are both headwinds and tailwinds that can have an impact on margins in the years ahead. A few of the headwinds include:
- Higher bargaining power of labour,
- Higher normalized interest rates,
- Risk of higher corporate taxes,
- Headwinds from deglobalization & decarbonization.
There are tailwinds that support future margin expansion including continued growth of the Technology sector, in addition to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics which can drive productivity gains across a range of sectors.
In a survey of Sector Analysts on TDAM's Fundamental Equities Team, the team believes that AI will be positive for 75% of the S&P 500. In addition, 59% of the S&P 500 is expected to see revenue tailwinds, and 60% of the S&P 500 is expected to post cost savings through the implementation of AI. Industries that are best positioned to benefit include Pharma & Biotech, Automotive, Semiconductors, Media, Software, Broadline Retailers.
Flat to modestly higher
All-in, over the next decade, margins are expected to be flat to modestly higher. Given the difficulty in forecasting the path of interest rates, corporate taxes, and the speed of AI adoption, the most sensible strategy for investors is to stick with a basket of high-quality companies. High quality companies, with pricing power, strong margins, strong free cash flow generation, and with the ability to reinvest cashflow into projects with attractive returns, are the most attractive. Firms with these qualities are ultimately best positioned to outperform, regardless of what the macro environment throws at them.
本文所含信息由道明资产管理有限公司提供，仅供参考。信息出自我们认为可靠的来源。本信息并未提供财务、法律、税务或投资建议。具体的投资、税款或交易策略应根据每位投资者的目标和风险承受能力加以评估。
本文档中的部分陈述可能包含预测性的前瞻性陈述（“FLS”），其中包含“预计”、“预期”、“打算”、“认为”、“估计”和类似的前瞻性表述或其否定形式。前瞻性陈述基于当前对未来普遍的经济、政治、相关市场因素（例如利率和汇率、股票和资本市场）以及普遍经营环境的预计和预测，并假定不发生税法或其他法律或政府管制方面的任何变动或灾难事件。对于未来事件的预计和预测本身受无法预见的风险和不确定性的影响。此等预计和预测可能在未来并不准确。前瞻性陈述并非对未来表现的保证。实际发生的事件可能与前瞻性陈述明示或暗示的事件存在实质差异。包括上文所述各项因素在内的多个重要因素均可能造成这种背离。您不应在任何程度上依赖于前瞻性陈述。
TD财富资产配置委员会(WAAC)由多元化的TD投资专业人士组成。WAAC的责任是发布季度市场展望，提供有关未来6至18个月市场行情的简明观点。WAAC的预测并非对未来结果的保证，实际市场事件可能与WAAC季度市场展望中明示或暗示的情况存在实质性差异。WAAC市场展望不可取代投资建议。
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